In the back of my mind when I wrote it I did actually think about more distant counterfeit cigarettes. I'd be interested to know the relative quantities involved. For a long time it was mostly stuff avoiding UK Duty on cross border European stuff, but I realize there is now a lot more overseas counterfeit.

I suspect that tax harmonization and increasing EU-wide taxes on tobacco products have led to the more distant and less well regulated counterfeits coming in.

But the principle remains - the good will drive out the bad. High tax is of course the mechanism of prohibition. Alcohol was not so far as I am aware ever anned" as such in the US (because that would have been a state power) but federal taxes on it were made so high, and being able to pay them made so difficult, that all alcohol was effectively illicit - and why the IRS were the primary vehicle for enforcement."