weather

One thing I've noticed consistently over the past few years of flooding events in Oxfordshire, and because a friend now lives in the village of Islip I notice it more is that the River Ray, a tributary of the Cherwell which it meets in the village, is often first on the list of Environment Agency highest level flood warnings.

So what? you may ask. Well I often hear people say that the speed with which rivers flood nowadays is down to agricultural practices that make it harder for land to hold water and so it quickly flushes off and into the watercourses and rivers. But the Ray "drains" (as much as it can) the flat fenland of Otmoor. The land is not, largely, cultivated. It is mostly grassland grazing and, when we used to go across it with the beagles, it absolutely soaked up water, and becomes quite boggy across a great swathe of Otmoor. It's quite similar to Romney Marsh.

Now it may be like a great big sponge that is perpetually full and only takes a little extra to fill the dykes and cause the Ray to flood, but it seems to me that it ought to be one of the last to flood, unless the reason for flooding is little to do with agricultural practices and more to do with the amount and intensity of bouts of rainfall.

Which is correct I wonder?

Incidentally, it also drains much of the area that would be built on under the eco-town proposal for "Weston Otmoor". Bonza!

Surely there's some mistake here. Have a look at this snippet from MetCheck's short term forecast for today in OX3, Oxford. The earlier period from 10:00 to 13:00 has just passed so has dropped off the screen, but it was showing 1.8mm of rain in that period. It's been tipping buckets all morning. But the forecast seems to be saying that in the mid-evening this evening it will be 10.8mm (it was 11.7 earlier) in two hours as against 1.8mm in three hours this morning.

My flat is prone to a bit of rainwater flooding as the door is in a bit of a dip halfway down a hill peppered with springs and so the run off is huge. SO it will be interesting to see what this order of magnitude increase in the rain from this morning to this evening will be like!