Met Letter to Jacqui Smith : "We Needed Consent, We Got Consent"

Via Wikileaks

Jeremy Corbyn Most Rebellious MP Again

There is something marvellously truculent about Jeremy Corbyn. He is once again, according to Philip Cowley's analysis, the most rebellious whip defying MP. Given that part of the reason for getting rid of Tony Blair was to restore party discipline it is amusing to see that the parliamentary Labour Party is more revolting now than it was under Blair; "Gordon Brown’s first complete parliamentary session as Prime Minister, saw Labour MPs defy their whips on 103 occasions. That compares to 96 occasions in Tony Blair’s whole first Parliament."

Download full analysis (pdf).

House Prices Fell 16% Y-o-Y, Car Sales Down 36.8% November

The pound is at a record low against the euro this morning (1.15). Today we'll probably see the Bank of England cut base rates to 2%. Alistair Darling says we'll be out of recession by the second half of next year - which seems to Guido very, very unlikely. The government says it will be underwriting the entire mortgage business, not just through quasi-nationalisation of banks, but by guaranteeing defaulting borrowers for 2 years. This is not a recipe for sound money. At this rate we will soon have to rename the currency the Great British Krona...

Speaker Underwhelms

Not exactly his finest hour was it? He really is the most chippy useless speaker to have sat in that chair. He is a terrible champion of parliamentary democracy.

Calling Devil's Kitchen

The Devil is forever boasting that he never suffers a hang-over. Guido can confirm that he does pass out though. DK, if you are wondering what happened to your phone and wallet, call, they are safe...

Green Raid Footage

C'mon ComRes

Has the arrest of Damian Green and the hiking of beer and income taxes boosted Labour massively? ComRes has Labour up 4% to only 1% behind the Tories (down 6%).

The ComRes national numbers are Con 37%(-6), Lab 36%(+4), Lib 17%(+5). It also has the Tories ahead of Labour in Wales and Labour shooting up in the wealthy Tory heartlands of the south east of England.

Does that make sense to you? ICM and Mori have Labour with double digit deficits. Punters on Betfair make Labour 3/1 outsiders...

The Run on the Pound

Yesterday sterling had the biggest drop it has had since it was forced out of the ERM on White Wednesday in 1992. The pound was down 4% at $1.48 and it fell 2.9% against the euro and tumbled 4.8% versus the yen. It just goes to show how bad Britain's situation is that this isn't even front page news on every paper.

UPDATE : This just in from a co-conspirator:

Hello Guido,
I've been perusing the great work of fiction that is Gordy's oops, the Chancellor's growth forecasts, and on page 1 of Annex A: The Economy we have this bullet-pointed gem:

'UK GDP growth of 3/4 % for 2008 with the economy contracting in the second half of the year'

Now, when the chancellor stood up at the dispatch box, three quarters of 2008 GDP growth were known:

Q1 0.3%
Q2 0%
Q3 -0.5%

In order to hit the forecast 0.75%, the economy has to grow at feisty 1% in the fourth quarter. Has the Chancellor been outside recently?

Is it any wonder that foreign investors have lost confidence in Britain, Gordon has missed his GDP growth forecasts every year since 2006. The Chancellor makes fantasy forecasts that no one believes, least of all HM Treasury, does he really expect GDP to surge this quarter?

UPDATE II : Some querying via email of how the GDP quarterly statistics are precisely computed by someone who seems to know what they are talking about; "There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

Earned Equity

Following on from Boris' idea of "earned citizenship", Iain Duncan Smith is pushing the idea that council tenants who seek work and "keep their families in good order... could earn a share of the equity in their homes... Social housing often acts as a block against people getting back to work, with lifetime tenure and lack of mobility" he told the Today show this morning.

Equity should be offered to: "those paying rent on time, keeping their families in good order, being part of the community... Estates have become ghettos of the most broken families and there are incentives for them to stay like that..."

70% paying rent aspired to owning their own home according to research by the Centre for Social Justice. Isn't this something sensible that New Labour could support? Helping decent hard working low income families to become homeowners? It isn't something for nothing, it isn't privatisation, it is nudging with rewards. If the most difficult and troublesome households saw their neighbours being rewarded for good housekeeping it would incentivise them to literally put their own house in order. The workless underclass in public sector housing is disproportionately the source of most crime and social problems. Labour's inability to make progress in this area despite huge expenditures is one of the biggest tragedies of the Blair years.

Report Summary download (pdf).

Harman Attempting to Nobble Speaker

A weak Speaker is a terrible blight on parliament. In Speaker Martin we have the weakest Speaker in modern times. Harriet Harman is trying to push him around:Dale has the scoop, Harriet Harman is convening a meeting of government, party and civil service figures, Jacqui Smith and Jack Straw, as well as Cabinet Secretary Gus O'Donnell, Jill Pay, the Serjeant at Arms and the Parliamentary Clerk, Malcolm Jack and a representative from the Speaker's Office. Clearly they are trying to agree a fix. If it was a genuine attempt to resolve the situation honestly opposition parliamentarians would have been invited. Appropriately it leaked out.

Another Downing Street Aide Quits

Ben Brogan reports that Gordon Brown's newly appointed "Strategic Communications Adviser" Nick Stace has lasted nine months. That long, eh?

He is off to Australia to get as far away as possible from the Prime Mentalist to take up a new job. The Downing Street bunker is returning to the hardcore plus Mandelson. Not a happy place is it?

+++ Pound Crashes Below $1.50 +++

And dropping... think this constitutes, as predicted by Osborne, a run on the pound.

+++ Press Association - Haringey Council Leader Resigns +++

Haringey Council leader George Meehan and cabinet member for children and young people Liz Santry have resigned in the wake of the Baby P scandal.

Stat-Porn : 763,7387 from 578,089 Visits by 131,053 Visitors

Traffic is up some 80% year-on-year, the absolute visitor count jumped this month because of foreign traffic, mainly after Yahoo and The National Review's Corner blog featured stories from this blog.

The top three stories this month were in order:

1. Brown Confesses to "Procuring Misconduct in Public Office"
2. Home Secretary's Biometric Data Compromised
3. Guys Arrested, Searched, and Ticketed

Many thanks to advertisers this month including the Adam Smith Institute, Chandila Fenando, the Drinkers Alliance, eFoodies, Help the Aged, HSBC, Kirsty Williams, Microsoft, the Orwell Trust, Progressive Vision, the Save the Pub campaign, The Stationery Office, Total Politics magazine, Standpoint magazine and last, but not least, the brothers at the TUC blog. Cheers!

Zimbabwean Central Bank Endorses UK Policies on Banking

Some people got upset when Guido compared Britain to Zimbabwe, in defence it should be borne in mind that making the comparison does not belittle the suffering of the Zimbabweans. It seems Zimbabweans too are making the comparison; no doubt Gordon (and Vince Cable) will be cheered by this endorsement from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe:

As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes where these are deemed necessary in their National interests.

That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit of our own national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification and demonization we have endured from across the political divide.

....leading central banks in the global economy are bailing out troubled economic sectors to achieve macroeconomic and financial stability....the Bank of England... providing a £50 billion lifeline to the UK’s banking sector.

Here in Zimbabwe we had our near-bank failures a few years ago and we responded by providing the affected Banks with the Troubled Bank Fund (TBF) for which we were heavily criticized even by some multi-lateral institutions who today are silent when the Central Banks of UK and USA are going the same way and doing the same thing under very similar circumstances thereby continuing the unfortunate hypocrisy that what’s good for goose is not good for the gander....

As Monetary Authorities, we commend those of our peers, the world over, who have now seen the light on the need for the adoption of flexible and practical interventions and support to key sectors of the economy when faced with unusual circumstances.

They seem to think that Gordon, far from leading the world, is copying Mugabonomics. They may have a point...

Via : Naked Capitalism

Bad News, Good News

With a load of economic data out this morning the pound is off 1% against the euro, the Purchasing Managers Index is down sharply, mortgage lending is down 70% year on year, credit card borrowing is up, PWC have research out saying Briton's are now personally £1.5 trillion in debt - yet Gordon wants them to spend, spend, spend more.

It is not all bad news though, Guido is short the FTSE....

+++ London Scottish Bank Bust +++

Official Stock Exchange announcement that after 100 years of trading it is in administration here. Metaphorical allegory in there somewhere.

Rich & Mark's Monday Morning View

Brown Confesses to "Procuring Misconduct in Public Office"

Did Marr Do the Usual Hard-Hitting Interview?

Guido stayed in bed this morning and missed the Andrew Marr show, which doesn't appear to be up on iPlayer yet (forgot to set the digicorder as well).

Judging by the comments below he let Jacqui Smith off the hook (surprise) over Damian Green. According to PoliticsHome's transcript when "asked about claims Mr Green had been bugged she said she would have had to sign a warrant for that to happen and she had not". More when it is up on iPlayer.

UPDATE 11.50 : According to comments below the PoliticsHome transcript is incorrect. Pretty crucial detail to get wrong if they have.

UPDATE 12.20 : Have now watched the interview. She gave the impression, but did not state that she had not authorised bugging. Marr actually seemed better than average.

Electoral Commission Is Investigating Gordon Brown / Smith Institute Slush Fund Allegations

The Sunday Times is reporting that the Electoral Commission is to investigate whether, in breach of electoral law, Ed Balls continued working for Gordon Brown while on the payroll of the Smith Institute charity before becoming an MP.

Regular readers will know that this allgation was a central part of Guido's campaign against the Sith. Essentially the Smith Institute was a slush fund for Gordon's ambitions. The Tories are now convinced that Ed Balls continued working for Gordon Brown when he was on the charity's payroll. They have been trying for six months to ascertain whether or not he continued to have access to the Treasury with a security pass. Guido has other evidence that Ed Balls continued to act as Gordon Brown's political adviser during th 2004 / 5 period when he was being paid by the charity. Not only Balls but also Tony Pilch, a former SpAd close to Balls, and Bob Shrum during the same over-lapping period were working for the Smith Institute.

According to the Sunday Times "the Tories are submitting a complaint to the Electoral Commission and John Lyon, the parliamentary commissioner for standards. They want Brown to be challenged over whether Balls had a pass."

Guido understands that the Electoral Commission is already making inquiries, including in the United States, following a complaint made last July (after the Charity Commission report condemned the Smith Institute for partisan activity) by the Sunlight Centre for Open Politics. That letter of complaint (here) focused on the activities of U.S. pollster Bob Shrum. Shrum was paid by the Smith Institute to advise Gordon Brown, these slush payments are a serious breach of electoral law.

From Superhero to Moses

After reading Peter Mandelson's unintentionally hilarious interview in the Guardian comparing Brown to Moses, Alan Duncan, his shadow says;

"First global superhero and now Moses… Labour and Peter Mandelson should spend more time getting a grip on the country's problems and less time heaping praise on their failed leader. We face massive issues. The automotive sector is grinding to a halt, the payment chain between companies is freezing over and insolvencies are rising fast. Labour has all but bankrupted Britain and as a result we are now badly placed to stave off the recession."

Britain does need a miracle worker...

UPDATE : Charlotte Corday, the co-conspirator with the most cutting wit in the comments: "The only thing that Gordon Brown has in common with Moses is that they are both basket-cases."

Good Faith Claim is Bad Politics

The LibDems love sitting on the moral high ground safe in the knowledge that since they will never form a government, they won't have to implement their policy positions. In a world of shades of grey, they see things in black and white. They even have a campaigning website www.Corruption is a Crime.com with the slogan "It’s time to end dodgy dealing". The website proclaims "For far too long, it's been acceptable to turn a blind eye to corruption when it comes to foreign contracts. The Liberal Democrats believe that corruption is a crime and should be stopped. Allegations of serious corruption must be fully investigated."

Excellent news. Perhaps now Michael Brown, their Majorca-based backer, has been convicted of theft, they will repay the defrauded £2.4 million they got from their crooked patron? When LibDemVoice polled readers, 52% of the highly moralistic grassroots sandalistas thought the party should pay back the money ASAP. Strangely nowhere on www.corruptionisacrime.com is Michael Brown mentioned...

ePolitix Not Closing, "Re-Focusing"

Michael Hepburn, CEO of Dods tells Guido that ePolitix.com is not closing (despite rumours to the contrary), it will instead focus more specifically on specialist in-depth analysis of policy and legislation rather than general political news stories. They will be cutting back on "3 or 4 journalists" as a result...

Whistleblowers Still Welcome Here

Guido makes every technological effort to make it easy and safe to blow the whistle on politicians:

• If you call the voicemail number your speech is converted to text and SMS'd to Guido's mobile phone.* Your voice is then erased.
• If you fax a document to Guido it is converted into an image file and emailed to Guido, if it is going to be used all identifiers are digitally removed, often by converting the fax image to clean text using optical character recognition software.
• If you want to send an untraceable encrypted email, Guido recommends using Hushmail.

If you want to clear your conscience, in confidence, this is the place to send documentation without being traced.

Peter Hain's demise began with the leak of one document, his campaign budget. That tip set in train a process that led directly to him resigning from the cabinet and being investigated by the police for undeclared donations.

You make this blog happen. Sources are anonymous (unless you want credit**). Who is on the fiddle? Who is lying? If you know "the line" is a lie, ask yourself why you got into politics; was it to cover up the truth or tell it?

Skype gossip and tittle-tattle online to Guido.
(If you haven't got Skype, download it free here.)

Guido's blog relies on you for information.

Voicemail : 0709 284 0531
Fax : 0709 201 2337
Email : Guido.Fawkes@Order-Order.com

*Courtesy of SpinVox **You may get a "Conspiracy Member" T-shirt.

Friday Caption Competition (Dry, Wet, Soppy Edition)

+++ Taxpayer Loses £2 Billion in RBS First Day of Ownership +++

Taxpayer paid 65.5p, currently trading 55p. Loss of £2 billion on the first day the taxpayer became the majority shareholder. It is only money...

Then and Now

In May 1985, a youthful opposition politician got hold of a leaked confidential government review proposing to encourage the unemployed to get jobs by reducing their dole. This, he raged, was " a raid on the poor".

Gordon was not arrested. Ironically it is also his government's policy now.

Hat-tip : London Evening Standard

UPDATE : The Fink has a few more examples the Met Police might wish to investigate.

Arrest Osborne Next

Surely the logic of the government's position means that George Osborne should be arrested. In the PBR debate he all but confessed to being in receipt of leaks when he said "we know" about government plans to push VAT up to 20%. He has had the jump on the Treasury brief more than once, he is clearly conspiring with a mole public official. Seize him...

UPDATE : What does Robert Peston think of those who conspire with public officials to leak sensitive information? Does it only matter when it hinders rather than helps the regime?

Clunking Fists Strike Opponents

Guido can't remember anything like this happening in his lifetime. This was not a national security issue. Counter terrorist police arresting opposition politicians?

UPDATE : David Davis on the Today show made the same point, that locking up opposition MPs for 9 hours is a tactic "reminiscent of Robert Mugabe", Tim Montgomerie doesn't approve of the comparison.