Being an experienced and somewhat cynical politician I have been habitually challenging the notion that Barack Obama will win the US Presidential election.
I could cite a dozen reasons why his campaign would be derailed by the Republican machine turning the hope of his supporters into bitter disappointment.
But with one week to go, and not tempting fate and all that, all the signs tell me that he is going to win, and win big.
His campaign has stayed doggedly on message, his opponents are all over the place, and he has a phenomenal campaign organisation.
As well as good poll numbers, which do have a margin of error, the anecdotal evidence of the excitement his campaign has generated tells us he will get a good turnout.
There is also a ‘winner factor’ in elections. People do like to get out and cast their vote for a winning candidate so they can claim their stake in the victory, whilst those backing a clear loser have little incentive to mobilise.
How exciting. Almost enough for me to cast aside my grumpiness about having to spend so much time following the US elections
(as with much UK-US resentment this is in large part a reflection of our envy at the US being more important than us).